Japan core inflation rose 3% in February, bolstering expectations of interest rate hikes

Japan's core inflation beat expectations and came in at 3% in February, government data showed on Friday, bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes.

The core inflation figure — which excludes prices of fresh food — was higher than expectations of 2.9%, according to economists polled by Reuters, but lower than January's figure of 3.2%.

Headline inflation rose 3.7% year on year in February, easing from a two-year high of 4% seen last month. It means the headline inflation rate has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 35 straight months.

The so called "core-core" inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy and is closely monitored by the BOJ, climbed to 2.6% from 2.5% in the month before.

The data comes shortly after the central bank held interest rates steady at 0.5% on Wednesday.

In its statement, the BOJ said that "underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually" and be "generally consistent" with its target of 2%.

The BOJ said core inflation is likely to increase over its 2025 fiscal year, due to high rice prices and the easing of government measures to push down inflation.

Exchange rate developments are also more likely to affect prices, the BOJ added, saying "there remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies in each jurisdiction."

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.1% after the data release to trade at 148.61 against the dollar, while the benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped marginally.

When the BOJ raised rates to 0.5% in January, the central bank said in its summary of opinions that Japan's economic activity and prices have been developing "generally in line with the Bank's outlook," adding: "If economic activity and prices remain on track, it will be necessary for the Bank to continue to raise the policy interest rate accordingly."

The inflation numbers also came amid strong wage hikes achieved from unions in the shunto wage negotiations, boosting the case for the BOJ to continue normalizing its monetary policy.

Japan's largest labor union announced on March 14 that it managed to secure an average 5.46% increase in wages from April — its largest increase in over three decades.

The Japanese Trade Union Confederation, or Rengo, which has around 7 million members, said that the first tabulation of the results covering 760 unions was 0.18 percentage points higher than last year's increase of 5.28%.

Small to medium-sized businesses saw an average rate rise of 5.09%, up 0.67 percentage points from last year and the first time since 1992 that the wage hikes for such companies crossed the 5% mark.

UA Zensen, an umbrella group representing retail, restaurant and other industry unions, reportedly said 139 of its member unions received an average increase of 5.37% in monthly wages for full-time workers, slightly less than 2024's record figure of 5.91%.