OBR leak exposes gambling tax hikes and errors hours before Reeves’s budget speech

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally had its full assessment of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget leaked online just hours… Continue reading OBR leak exposes gambling tax hikes and errors hours before Reeves’s budget speech The post OBR leak...

Nov 26, 2025 - 20:35

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OBR leak exposes gambling tax hikes and errors hours before Reeves’s budget speech

Illustration of UK gambling reform showing playing cards, poker chips, and dice blended with Big Ben and the Union Jack flag. Autumn Budget 2025 UK gambling firms brace themselves for sharp tax rises - what to expect

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally had its full assessment of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget leaked online just hours before she was due to speak. The report, the Economic and Fiscal Outlook, was briefly accessible before it was taken down, even though it’s normally only published after the chancellor finishes her statement in Parliament.

OBR acknowledges leak ahead of budget

Reeves started her speech by noting that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally released its budget analysis early. She told MPs: “This is deeply disappointing, and a serious error on their part.

“The Office for Budget Responsibility have already made a statement taking full responsibility for their breach.”

A screenshot of an official notice dated 26 November 2025 titled “Notice regarding Economic and fiscal outlook being released today.” The message explains that the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook document was published too early due to a technical error, has since been removed, and an investigation is under way. It states the OBR will report to oversight bodies and confirms the documents will be re-released after the chancellor’s speech.

OBR statement acknowledging the accidental early release of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook. Credit: OBR

UK gambling tax set to be raised in budget

The leak revealed one major detail. The gambling industry is set for a significant tax increase, expected to bring in £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) by 2029–30. According to the OBR, “Several changes to gambling duties have been announced in the budget which overall are estimated to raise £1.1 billion by 2029-30.”

This includes a steep rise in remote gaming duty “from 21 to 40 per cent” from April 2026, and the creation of a new 25 per cent general betting duty for online gambling from April 2027. The document confirms that “self-service betting terminals, spread betting, pool bets, and horseracing” will be exempt. Bingo duty will be abolished from its current 10 per cent rate.

“The Government has also announced a freeze in casino gaming duty bands in 2026-27 with the usual RPI [retail price index – inflation] uprating thereafter.”

The news hit gambling stocks almost immediately. By 12:45 GMT, Ladbrokes owner Entain had slipped 2.9% to 725.60p, while evoke plc, formerly 888 Holdings, had tumbled 12.4% to 32.75p.

Constraints with the data

The foreword stresses that while officials engaged constructively, there were constraints, stating: “Policy costings information on the direct fiscal effects of some measures was received late and without sufficient detail.”

More broadly, the OBR says the economic outlook has become “more challenging and uncertain,” with real GDP growth now expected to reach only 1 per cent this year and inflation projected to hit a peak of 3.7 per cent in mid-2025. Debt is set to stay close to 96 per cent of GDP throughout the forecast period, and the tax burden is on track to climb to a record 37.7 per cent of GDP by 2027–28.

Even with the leak, the report confirms that the government is still meeting its fiscal rules, but only just. The OBR points out that the buffer against the fiscal mandate is only £9.9 billion in 2029–30, calling this “one-third of the average” that chancellors have kept in reserve since 2010.

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