Eli Lilly market share drops, Novo Nordisk holds firm as generic weight-loss drugs flood India

The market share of India's most popular weight‑loss drugmaker, Eli Lilly, slipped in March, while rival Novo Nordisk held steady even as Indian generic drugmakers flooded the market with lower‑priced copies.

Eli Lilly's Indian market share in the GLP‑1 category of weight‑loss drugs fell to 56% in March from 61% a month earlier, according to data from industry intelligence provider Pharmarack. Novo Nordisk's market share remained steady at 25%.

India is a critical market, with around 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of the population classified as overweight or obese. The country is also known as the "world's pharmacy," with its well-developed generic drugs industry supplying around 20% of global generic medicines. 

Last month, the patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs, expired, triggering a wave of cheaper Indian generics. These were expected to hurt the sales of the Danish drugmaker, but early data show Eli Lilly has taken the bigger hit.

As semaglutide drugs get cheaper, the sales of Eli Lilly's more expensive tirzepatide-based brands are likely to see further erosion, experts said.

The Pharmarack report noted that 13 Indian generic drug companies have collectively launched 26 brands of semaglutide, which is prescribed for both weight loss and diabetes management, in a matter of weeks.

"The widening cost differential between semaglutide and tirzepatide, along with publicity around cheaper semaglutide generics, has led to this erosion of market share [for Eli Lilly]," said Vishal Manchanda, a pharma sector analyst at Indian brokerage Systematix Group.

He added that over time, tirzepatide may be restricted to wealthier patients with a strong focus on weight loss, as it remains more effective but comes at a higher price point.

Eli Lilly's Mounjaro starts at around 13,800 rupees ($148) per month, said Mumbai‑based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil, adding it is priced more than double Novo's semaglutide drugs and ten times more than the cheapest of the generic versions.

Demand for anti‑obesity drugs — a category in which Mounjaro is more popular in India than semaglutide‑based treatments — is being driven by short‑term users seeking "quick fixes," experts said. These include people looking to lose weight rapidly ahead of special occasions such as weddings.

Lower‑cost generic semaglutide has created "immediate noise, drawing patients and some prescribers towards affordability‑driven choices," said Kovil, adding that the shift is more pronounced among users seeking quick results.

Not only have the generic companies launched cheaper versions of semaglutide, but Novo Nordisk has also reduced its price for Ozempic by 38% and Wegovy by 48%, it said in a press release on March 31.

With these price reductions, Novo aims to keep its drugs "affordable for as many people with type 2 diabetes, overweight and obesity in India as possible," Vikrant Shrotriya, managing director of Novo Nordisk India, said in the press release.

The cuts have significantly narrowed the premium between Novo Nordisk's GLP‑1 drugs and generic semaglutide copies. The monthly cost of Novo's semaglutide products now starts at 5,660 rupees, compared with around 4,200 rupees for higher‑end generics.

Some generic versions of semaglutide are available for as little as 1,290 rupees per month, said Anant Kharad, director at Anand Rathi Investment Banking, who leads the firm's pharma sector practice. He added that "physician confidence in generic quality will be the key variable to watch over the next 12–18 months."

India's GLP-1 market is estimated to grow nearly five-fold to 50 billion rupees by 2030, and by some bullish estimates to more than $1.2 billion, experts said, driven by rising obesity and diabetes prevalence and the entry of lower-cost generics.

Many Indian generic drugmakers have launched GLP‑1 drugs and several more are awaiting regulatory clearance, experts said, adding that demand is likely to concentrate among just four to five players.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Zydus Lifesciences are among the Indian drugmakers best positioned to capture the GLP‑1 market in India, Kharad said.