Is Threads Really Scared of Bluesky?

Is Threads really concerned about the rise of Bluesky?

Well, yes and no, though it depends on what exactly you mean by “concerned” in this context.

First off, to clarify the situation, Twitter clone app Bluesky, which was originally launched as an internal Twitter project, and is staffed by former Twitter employees, has jumped from 9 million users in September, to 20 million today.

Now, 20 million is still a long way off of Threads’ 275 million actives, so it’s not like Bluesky is suddenly breathing down Threads’ neck on overall popularity, while neither app is anywhere close to X, which claimed that it’s now up to 570 million monthly actives back in July.

But it does seem like Threads is at least a little concerned, based on its sudden roll-out of a heap of new updates (several of which mirror those available on Bluesky), and Instagram and Threads chief Adam Mosseri making a public statement on reports of Bluesky’s growth.

That statement doesn’t really tell you much, but the fact that Mosseri felt compelled to comment at all is interesting, considering Meta’s long-held media approach in not commenting on speculation.

So the indicators do suggest that Threads is at least monitoring the Bluesky situation, with the concern likely being the rise in momentum, and what that can mean for expanded usage.

Take, for example, Clubhouse, which rose from 600k users to 2 million in just four weeks when it became the trending app of the moment back in 2021. It then rose to 10 million users just three months later. So while, right now, Bluesky might not be a significant lure for potential Threads users overall, the risk is that as more and more influential users switch over, and continue to sing the app’s praises, it could rise from 20 million to 100 million very quickly. And while even then it wouldn’t be competing with Threads on total users, as such, that’s a heap of potential Threads users who would be signing up to a rival instead.

And that is the audience that Meta’s targeting with Threads.

Meta originally created Threads in order to gather up cast-offs from Twitter/X, who had been alienated by the changes implemented by new owner Elon Musk.

Indeed, at launch, Instagram (and Threads) chief Adam Mosseri noted that:

“We wanted to get more done [before launching Threads], but we're starting to worry that the window of opportunity was closing on us.”

That window was the market gap that had been left as people turned away from X, and were seeking an alternative. Mastodon had gained some early momentum, and Bluesky was also attracting more users. But Meta wanted to push Threads as the alternative, and snap up as many Twitter refugees as it could.

As such, Bluesky is now diluting that market share, at least to some degree. And the fact that tech journalists, in particular, seem enamored with Bluesky also poses a risk, in that more popular and influential users posting to the app will continue to attract a bigger audience.

And now, even celebrities are starting to promote their Bluesky handles.

So it’s not that Bluesky is a contender straight out of the gate, but the momentum is growing, which may well be why Threads is pushing out more updates, and why the Threads team seems a least a little spooked.

But Threads remains the leading X alternative, and it’s also worth noting that it too has gained a heap more users since the U.S. election, which is when Bluesky started to get more focus. But based on the trends, Bluesky could well become a 100 million or 200 million user app very quickly, which is why Threads is now seeking to negate its key elements of differentiation where it can.  

It’s smart business, and replication has long served Meta as a key means to fend off rivals. So yes, Threads is at least a little concerned about the rise of “the Sky”, but it’s got a long way to go to become a legitimate contender in the real-time social race.