NewFronts trends to watch—AI, measurement upheaval and streaming sports investment

IAB NewFronts next week will surely be taken over by talk of economic uncertainty, a possible TikTok ban and emerging AI capabilities. And what is already apparent, it's shaping up to be a buyer’s market, with advertisers demanding more flexibility on their ad buys on social platforms and streaming TV. 

One company that won’t be there is Twitter, which was once a staple at the annual gathering but has dialed back its ad world appearances under new owner Elon Musk.

Platforms and publishers are vying for a portion of the $11.6 billion in ad dollars up for grabs at NewFronts, according to Insider Intelligence’s data, an increase of 24% from last year. There still are concerns about a sluggish overall economy, but healthy earnings reports from Meta and Google last week and Amazon yesterday, particularly in its ad unit, provided signs of life in digital advertising.

“Marketers have gotten smarter and done their homework the last couple years,” said Mark Wagman, managing director of data and technology solutions at MediaLink, the management consulting firm. “And they have gotten smarter at knowing what makes a streaming consumer different from a linear one, and a sports consumer different from a binge watcher.”

Platforms such as TikTok are grabbing brands with short-form video; Amazon, Roku and Peacock are tying connected TV to data around retail media; while video behemoth YouTube tries to straddle all worlds with its large, connected TV presence, new NFL deal for Sunday Ticket, and Shorts videos that compete with TikTok. Snap and Meta’s Instagram and Facebook will also be hosting presentations.

“There are going to be very difficult decisions and clear winners and losers,” said a media buyer from a major brand, who spoke on condition of anonymity. In recent years, ad sellers and publishers had the upper hand in negotiations as people spent more time watching videos, especially during COVID, the buyer said, but this year, there is more ad-supported video on demand and more ad inventory. Netflix’s new ad business is proof of that, and advertisers have gotten smarter about demanding better data and measurement, so that they know how their ad campaigns perform.

Keep track: Ad Age's upfronts and NewFronts calendar

Here's a look at what to expect (or not expect) from NewFronts presentations. 

TikTok’s disappearing act

TikTok, which had a big showing at last year’s NewFronts in New York, is closing off its presentation to media this year. The event is invite-only; similarly, TikTok hosted a spot at SXSW in March, but it was closed to the public. Industry watchers told Ad Age that TikTok is being guarded because of the increased scrutiny around the company, which is owned by Chinese-based ByteDance. TikTok is a powerful app in U.S. culture and has forged strong ties with brands that want to reach its younger-skewing audience. But U.S. lawmakers worry about its foreign ownership, how it handles data and its algorithm that controls the media in people’s For You feeds.

“TikTok doesn’t need a NewFront to sell their inventory,” said Lou Paskalis, chief strategy officer at Ad Fontes Media, a news media advisory group.

“It’s odd,” said one prominent digital media advertising executive, about TikTok closing off its presentation. TikTok has been meeting regularly with agencies and brands in recent months to assure ad buyers about its data security and safety procedures.

Amazon gets technical with TV

Amazon is now a fixture at the NewFronts as it builds out Prime Video, the Freevee app, Fire TV and Twitch. Last year, Amazon was a streaming starlet with an NFL deal for “Thursday Night Football,” which became a centerpiece of its presentation. This year, Amazon is still showing off premium programming, including NFL and other shows, but it also has recently upgraded its ad tech to speak to programmatic ad buyers that covet data and measurement. Advertisers told Ad Age that Amazon will get more sophisticated in season two of its NFL deal to provide more targeted advertising during football games for brands that want to slice and dice demos. 

“We’ve been hard at work reinventing the core backend, machine-learning engine in the DSP,” said Neal Richter, director of Amazon DSP technology, speaking to Ad Age ahead of the NewFronts. The DSP is Amazon’s demand-side platform that brands use to place orders across the web and into connected TV. Amazon competes all over the map for ad dollars, with Walmart in retail media, Roku in connected TV and with Google on third-party websites.

More: Amazon DSP measurement—what brands are getting wrong

“Amazon right now needs more sizzle in order to make their platform a must-buy,” said Tal Chalozin, chief technology officer at Innovid, an advertising and analytics platform. Amazon will use the NewFronts to talk about some of that “sizzle,” which it could get through more premium ad inventory in publishers on Fire TV and other programming.

Amazon has been taking more shows developed for Prime Video and putting them on Freevee with ads, according to advertisers.

YouTube’s NFL gambit

YouTube is the platform with the new NFL rights this year, after it landed NFL Sunday Ticket in a deal that will span at least the next seven seasons. The platform has already been showing off new programs related to NFL, including video series around the NFL Draft, which started this week. YouTube has been putting some of its creators to work with shows related to the NFL. That’s a similar play to how Amazon produced sideshows for “Thursday Night Football” with Twitch stars.

YouTube has an event with MediaLink to kick off NewFronts on Monday, but it also scheduled Brandcast, its main advertiser event for May 17, during the so-called broadcast TV upfront week. YouTube, owned by Google, is trying to solidify its ad business under new CEO Neal Mohan. YouTube’s first-quarter ad revenue declined 2.6% to $6.7 billion, according to Google’s quarterly results. Google is promoting prestige content with NFL, but also leaning more into short-form video with Shorts, positioning itself against TikTok, Meta and Snap.

“Shorts is still a bit behind,” Chalozin said.

Can we get an AI

Meta will put AI front and center in its NewFront presentation. CEO Mark Zuckerberg made AI a cornerstone of Meta’s quarterly financial results this week. “I think there’s an opportunity to introduce AI agents to billions of people in ways that will be useful and meaningful,” Zuckerberg said. “We’re exploring chat experiences in WhatsApp and Messenger, visual creation tools for posts in Facebook and Instagram and ads.”

Advertisers are interested in how AI can help power targeting in ad algorithms and how generative AI could eventually make ads. Meta will also be talking about Reels, its short videos that compete with TikTok. AI is a core part of how Meta is building recommendation algorithms to deliver Reels to users and keep them tuned into the platform.

At the same time, Meta has moved away from developing highly polished videos and long-form series, which used to be at the center of its upfront negotiations with brands now that it is focused on Reels. Last month, Meta dropped “in-stream reserve” as a buying option, which had been an upfront style of ordering inventory for major brands.

Snap, too, is pressing the gas on AI. Snap's NewFront comes in the wake of its partner summit, where the company released an AI chatbot. Snap also has been using AI in its recommendation algorithms and ads platform. On Thursday, Snap posted its first-ever quarterly revenue decline, calling out “continued disruption in demand” for advertising.

The platforms will likely promote machine learning technology, but more importantly, buyers are asking for data and ad measurement, said Ashwini Karandikar, executive VP of media, technology and data at the 4A's, the ad industry trade group. “There is a very clear and explicit ask for better integrated data that is playing a role in how they show up at these NewFronts,” Karandikar said.

NewFronts set the TV upfront stage

CTV and streaming’s presence in the NewFronts continues to hold strong. Major presentations from Samsung, Roku, NBCUniversal’s Peacock, Vevo and Vizio will once again populate the week, with smaller showcases from BBC, Fubo and Crackle among the mainstage presenters.

While previous NewFronts player Tubi hosted an event for advertisers in late March, and advertising newcomer Netflix chose to join the TV upfront week later in May, Roku’s head of U.S. Brand Sales Kristina Shepard said the choice to stay put was strategic.

“Roku isn’t fighting for turf in the streaming wars like so many of the other apps are—Roku is the turf,” said Shepard. “We know that you can’t decorate a house before building the foundation, and that’s why you need to buy the platform before you buy the pieces.”

For other platforms, such as Samsung Ads, the NewFronts is less about buying and more to showcase innovation and surface trends for TV advertisers, said Cathy Oh, Samsung Ads’ global head of marketing.

“That [upfront] buying cycle has certainly gone out the window now, and we’re having conversations about next year already,” said Oh. “I don’t know if the days of one week, all fall [programming] announcements—how much longer that will go for, but I do think folks look at NewFronts as an opportunity to hear about innovation and how we stack against one another.”

Measurement continues to be the buzz

Conversations about media measurement are inescapable. As major TV network groups square off with digital players such as YouTube in a cat fight to prove superiority, CTV and digital platforms will showcase innovations in measurement throughout the week.

Likely to bubble up throughout the week are issues native to digital video, including cross-platform ad duplication and measurement inconsistency across FAST channels, as well as growing shifts toward non-demo metrics such as attention and attribution.

Roku has already announced data and measurement partnerships ahead of the NewFronts, including a retail attribution deal with Instacart and another with media agency UM to measure diverse-owned media impressions. 

Diverse-owned media gets a boost

While many diverse-owned media partners are returning, this year’s NewFronts seems to be joining industry efforts to boost equitable investment by offering a greater spotlight. Day one will include a “Minority-owned media showcase” featuring Blavity, Cocina and iOne Digital. The NewFronts mainstage will also include presentations from Estrella Media, Canella Media, LATV and Revry, which told Ad Age it would be the NewFronts’ first LGBTQ+ presenter.

Despite economic headwinds, agency buyers believe this year’s dealmaking won’t shun smaller, minority-owned media sellers even as budgets tighten. Agencies including Magna and GroupM have boosted commitments to diverse-owned media leading into the ad haggle.