Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is near a three-month low as doubt grows that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement to fully open the key Middle East oil export corridor.

Vessel transits sat at a five-day average of around 13 on Tuesday, nearly the lowest level since May 12, according to a CNBC analysis of data provided by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. This includes ships of all types, from cargo vessels to oil tankers.

Traffic is about 90% lower than the daily average of 130 ships that transited Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that oil exports through Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day as tankers transit the strait with U.S. military assistance. A single supertanker can carry about 2 million barrels.

Total oil exports from the Gulf states are averaging about 15 million bpd when pipelines are included, Wright said. Before the war, about 20 million bpd of crude oil and products were exported through Hormuz.

"Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway," the energy secretary said in a social media post.

Iran's top national security official Mohsen Rezaei said Tuesday that Hormuz will not open fully until Washington agrees to Tehran's demands, according to the state news outlet PressTV.

A week ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that a deal could come soon to open Hormuz with freedom of movement for ships. Bessent's comments helped drive an oil sell-off last week, but an agreement between the U.S. and Iran still has not materialized.

The U.S. and Iran signed an interim deal on June 17 to open Hormuz, with ship crossings surging to a five-day average of about 60 on June 26. But the agreement subsequently collapsed as Washington and Tehran started fighting over shipping routes, which were left undefined in the deal.

Iran attacked tankers that used the U.S.-protected route along Oman's coast. The Trump administration launched more than a dozen waves of strikes against Iran and reimposed its naval blocade in retaliation.

President Donald Trump has pivoted back to diplomacy this month, though it is unclear how much progress has been made. Traffic on Tuesday was about 80% below the post-deal peak.