3 things to pay attention to in the markets this coming week

Stocks tried to rally Friday after the June jobs report came in weaker than expected. But it wasn't enough to rescue a losing day and week for all three averages to kick off the second half of 2023. Just a day before, the ADP employment number was more than double the Street's estimate and sent stocks reeling on concerns the Federal Reserve will resume raising rates to stamp out inflation. It was another "good news is bad news" moment, as a resilient economy lead to another sell-off. Here are 3 things you need to know for the week ahead:

1. A couple of key inflation measures will provide some clues to the central bank's next moves. The consumer price index (CPI) report — which calculates the average change over time in prices that shoppers pay for goods and services — drops Wednesday. A lot is riding on the CPI following the scorching hot ADP number. The Street wants to see a continued decline in the rate of price increases on an annual basis to show the Fed's plan is working. On Thursday, the producer price index (PPI) is out and will show the change in selling prices received by producers of goods and services. The PPI doesn't influence the Fed as much as the CPI, but since it measures price fluctuations higher up in the supply chain, it can predict future consumer price changes as companies take actions to protect profit margins.

2. Oil prices rebounded this week but remain range-bound, trading at around $70 per barrel since early May. This is important to watch because the commodity represents a key input cost for business in every industry and an unavoidable cost for most consumers. As a result, the price action here can impact everything from consumer and business sentiment to the Fed's thinking on inflation. We believe global economic growth expectations will need to improve before prices can make a sustained move higher. That includes a stronger recovery in China. Efforts by OPEC+ to reduce supplies have done little to meaningfully impact the prices. The organization has less pull than it once did, thanks to growing U.S. production over the past decade that made it the largest producer in the world.

3. Wells Fargo and the big banks report second-quarter earnings on Friday. We find the management calls with investors are extremely important in providing a real-time view on what's happening in the economy. Our thinking is two-fold: One, we get far stronger insight into various industries and the dynamics within them such end-market demand, supply chain dynamics, who is gaining market share and who is losing it — the type of granular, up-to-date detail that isn't usually available with backward-looking macroeconomic data; and second, management teams provide a forecast that can help guide our investing decisions. We'll also get a glimpse into the state of the consumer on Thursday with earnings from Delta (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG).

Just a friendly reminder: On Wednesday, we will be hosting our July Monthly Meeting, where Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks will provide updates on every stock in the portfolio, along with our views on the market and economy. Until then, we recently provided some high level thoughts on each sector of the market.

Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead:

Monday, July 10

Tuesday, July 11

Wednesday, July 12

Thursday, July 13

Friday, July 14

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