CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia's 'drop-the-mic moment'

Wall Street rally 
Stocks rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the "time has come" to cut interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 462 points, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 climbed 1.47% and 1.15%, respectively. For the week, the Dow gained 1.3%, the Nasdaq 1.4% and the S&P 500 rose 1.45%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, while U.S. oil prices rose more than 2% to move back above $74 a barrel. 

'The time has come'
Following Powell's indication of an impending interest rate cut, market attention has pivoted to the timing and extent of the reduction. Traders currently anticipate a quarter-point cut in September, with rising expectations of a more aggressive half-point reduction. The likelihood of a larger cut is gaining traction, particularly if the August jobs report reflects the weakness seen in July's figures. As the Fed's mid-September meeting approaches, CNBC's Jeff Cox cast an eye over the key economic indicators that could influence the final decision.

Activist defense 
Intel is working with Morgan Stanley and other advisors to defend against potential activist investors as it struggles to compete with rivals like Nvidia. Intel is cutting 15,000 jobs as part of a $10 billion cost-reduction program as CEO Pat Gelsinger attempts to turn the chip maker around. Morgan Stanley has previously worked with the Intel, including spinning off Mobileye in 2022. The company's difficulties stem from missing key market trends, including the smartphone boom and the current AI surge.

Returning empty
Boeing's Starliner capsule will return from the International Space Station without astronauts. NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will instead return via SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft, extending their stay on the ISS by about six months. The decision follows issues with Starliner's propulsion system during its crew flight test. "We want to further understand the root causes and understand the design improvements so that the Boeing Starliner will serve as an important part of our assured crew access to the ISS," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said. The setback could threaten Boeing's involvement with NASA's commercial crew program, which has already absorbed losses of more than $1.5 billion.

Asia mixed, yen up
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday as Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $75.50 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.9% to $79.72. Japan's export-heavy Nikkei 225 fell 0.66% as the yen strengthened amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 1.1%, while mainland China's CSI 300 slipped 0.1% as the central bank left medium-term lending rates unchanged. Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.14% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.76%.

[PRO] 'Near certainty'
Morgan Stanley predicts a global tech downturn in 2025, likely due to slowing revenue growth and tight supply-demand. Semiconductor materials and the AI supply chain are particularly vulnerable, although all tech sectors will likely be affected. The investment bank also gave advice for how to position for it. 

"This is going to be a drop-the-mic moment" for Nvidia, Wedbush's Dan Ives told CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. "Powell, Jackson Hole — so important — but the market, what it's going to do for the rest of the year and I could argue 2025, it starts with this Nvidia earnings." 

On Wednesday, Nvidia — the undisputed leader in AI — will deliver its second-quarter earnings after the closing bell. The stock has soared 161% this year, despite plunging to a low of $90.69 on Aug.  5, as markets capitulated on economic concerns.

Wall Street remains bullish on Nvidia. As CNBC's Jesse Pound reports, the options market is betting that Nvidia will get a boost from its earnings report. Enthusiasm for the stock appears undiminished, even in light of the delay for its Blackwell chip — a project CEO Jensen Huang said cost the company $10 billion to develop.

"A delay of two to three months, I view that as a sort of an asterisk. This is not moving the needle in terms of a demand perspective," Ives said. 

As footnotes go, while Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market, its competitor Intel has fallen significantly behind. Not only did Intel miss the smartphone revolution, but it's also lagging in the AI race. Nvidia has overtaken Intel as the largest chipmaker by revenue, with Intel now roughly 35 times smaller in market capitalization. Facing these challenges, Intel has enlisted the help of Morgan Stanley and other advisors to fend off potential activist investors.

Wall Street ended the week on a strong note, reassured by Powell's signal for imminent rate cuts, though the timing and scale remain contingent on upcoming economic data.

Former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley expects a series of 25-basis-point reductions at the next several FOMC meetings. McCulley also believes a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut could be implemented if August's jobs report, due on Sept. 6, shows signs of weakness.

Powell "drew a line in that we don't want to see further deceleration in the labor market — we're there," McCulley said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "I don't think that's the base case yet, but clearly he's opened the door for front-loading of the easing process."

Powell's dovish tone also sends a strong signal to the market, according to David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. "This keeps a tailwind at the market's back into year-end, making it harder to expect a retest of this month's lows," he said.

— CNBC's Sarah Min, Rohan Goswami, Lisa Kailai Han, Michele Luhn, Michael Sheetz, Jesse Pound, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Yun Li, Pia Singh, Spencer Kimball, Lim Hui Jie and Weizhen Tan contributed to this report.