CNBC Daily Open: Trump's Hormuz gambit lands with a whimper
Markets appear to have made their peace with the stalled talks, with oil barely moving despite another oil output quota hike by the OPEC+ members.
Koichiko
U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit board M/V Blue Star III, a commercial ship suspected of attempting to transit to Iran in violation of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, April 28, 2026. U.S. forces released the vessel after conducting a search and confirming the ship’s voyage would not include an Iranian port call.
U.S. Marine Corps | CENTCOM
Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.
Sometimes, actions produce the opposite of the desired outcome. Washington's attempt to assert control over the Iran conflict, whether through oil diplomacy or tough talk, has had the opposite effect. Instead of calming markets, they have highlighted just how little has been resolved.
Peace talks are stalling. Shipping lanes remain choked. And even a modest OPEC+ output hike landed with a shrug.
Markets, for now, appear to have made their peace with the stalemate. S&P 500 futures edged higher while oil barely moved. But the relative calm may prove fragile as the week unfolds.
What you need to know today
Seven OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June, the third consecutive monthly increase. But with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the real-world impact is likely limited. The meeting was also the cartel's first since the United Arab Emirates' shock exit from the group last week.
Oil prices ticked down modestly, while S&P 500 futures rose slightly on Sunday as investors reacted to continued uncertainty surrounding progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran. The international benchmark Brent crude prices slipped less than 1% to about $107 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged lower to around $101 per barrel.
The U.S. will begin freeing ships stranded in the Strait on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Sunday, describing the effort as a "humanitarian gesture" for neutral countries not involved in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The president offered scant details about how the process would unfold.
Hours earlier, Tehran confirmed that it had received a U.S. response to its 14-point peace offer. Trump said over the weekend he had yet to review the exact wording of the Iranian peace proposal but was likely to reject it because "they have not paid a big enough price."
Iranian state media quoted Foreign Ministry Esmaeil Baghaei as saying that nuclear talks are off the table until a ceasefire is reached and blockades in the vital energy artery are lifted on both sides.
Amid prolonged disruption to the Gulf oil flows, U.S. oil exports surged to a record high, shipping 5.2 million barrels per day in April, up more than 30% from February, according to Kpler.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said energy prices, which have surged since the war started in late February, are likely to ease later this year.
"Oil prices on the other side of this conflict are going to be much lower," Bessent said on Fox Business Network's "Sunday Morning Futures" program.
Geopolitical tensions extended beyond the Middle East. China's Commerce Ministry moved to block U.S. sanctions targeting five Chinese refiners accused of buying Iranian crude, signaling renewed strain between Beijing and Washington.
A U.S. delegation led by Republican Senator Steve Daines was reportedly scheduled to visit China last week, with planned stops in Beijing and Shanghai, less than two weeks before Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are due to meet.
Across the region, finance ministers from China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN said they are closely monitoring markets and stand ready to respond to volatility if needed, following talks held on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
CNBC is on the ground in Uzbekistan, covering the gathering, including moderating a debate at the event. On Sunday, the bank unveiled a $70 billion program to expand energy grids and digital infrastructure across the Asia-Pacific region by 2035.
— Anniek Bao
And finally...
In his first annual meeting as CEO, Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel discussed a wide array of topics from artificial intelligence to his efforts to grow the conglomerate.
Abel said the Omaha-based firm was thinking critically about how to use AI to add value, saying that Berkshire wasn't "going to do AI for the sake of AI." Abel also walked through efforts to improve its railway and insurance businesses at the event, which has long been called "Woodstock for Capitalists."
In a special sideline interview, Buffett told CNBC's Becky Quick that he did not see the ideal investing environment. Buffett compared "markets to a church with a casino attached," making a distinction between traditional value investing and current enthusiasm for short-term options trading, along with increasing interest in prediction markets.
"People can move between the church and the casino, and I would say there are more people in the church [than] people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive," he said. "If you're buying one-day options or selling them, that's not investing, it's not speculating – it's gambling."
"We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now," he said.
— Yun Li, Alex Harring, Sarah Min, Tobias Burns
