Grab’s results beat expectations, but Indonesia delivered a painful last-minute blow

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In an increasingly familiar pattern, Grab has just posted strong Q1 results for 2026, seeing its revenue grow by 24% compared to 2025. The results beat analyst expectations, and turned last year’s US$21 million loss into a US$22 million profit—but you would struggle to see it reflected in the company’s stock performance.

This is despite having hit its first profitable year since inception, earning US$200 million in 2025.

Instead of a rally, following the transition from a money-burning startup into a mature, self-sustainable business, Grab has lost almost a quarter of its value over the past 12 months and is around 45% down from the high point last September.

In fact, the company is now trading at roughly the same levels it was in 2022, when revenue was less than half of today’s figure, and it was still burning billions annually to fund growth.

So why can’t Grab seem to break through the ceiling it has been bouncing against since its US$40 billion IPO in 2021?

Chasing a moving target

Starting off as a regional version of Uber, Grab has transformed itself (like many similar companies) into a superapp business, based on the promise that you could do a lot more than just hail a cab ride with your smartphone.

But despite its rapid growth and recently established profitability, functionally, Grab remains mostly about ordering rides and deliveries. Its financial services arm still requires further investment and is currently losing money, although its loan portfolio has more than doubled in the last year.

In other words, even after taking over Uber’s stake in Southeast Asia in 2018, as of 2026, the superapp dream is still only just that—a dream.

This is because whenever one competitor disappears, another turns up, as Gojek did shortly after Uber’s exit.

Since then both companies have been locked in a similar war of attrition, which has kept margins low, preventing meaningful growth of either.

And for as long as they have been battling it out, rumours have swirled about their impending acquisition or merger, which was first discussed back in 2020.

The topic saw a resurgence last year as negotiations are reportedly still on in early 2026, despite hitting some roadblocks, although the biggest concern remains the monopolistic position the combined entity would enjoy.

Indonesia holds the deciding vote

The rationale for the transaction is very simple: a single company would operate more efficiently, saving money on needless marketing expenses, allowing it to focus on investing in new services.

The problem for national regulators is the fact that if it goes through, the Grab-GoTo behemoth would have upwards of 90% of the market share in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, and a substantial stake in Thailand and Vietnam.

As a result, they are unlikely to approve it unless the company offers strict concessions on how it is pricing its services to prevent gouging. That, however, could make the whole exercise pointless if it is prevented from reaping the rewards and remains constrained by local regulations.

Indonesia, the key government that has to greenlight the deal (since GoTo is an Indonesian company), may have just made the entire deal less viable, after President Prabowo announced just a few days ago that the country will cap maximum commissions charged by app operators from 20 to just 8%.

The decision puts the financial sense of the potential merger into question, although, depending on how badly it affects Gojek, it may force GoTo to push for the deal as it is facing a sharp drop in domestic revenue.

What it did for both businesses, however, was push their respective stock market valuations down in the subsequent days. This is why Grab, despite all of its achievements, continues to trade much below analyst targets and only as high as it was three to four years ago, when it was still a cash-burning growth stock.

Low margins, cutthroat competition and regulatory uncertainty continue to dampen investor moods, and it might remain so until the company starts showing profits from its other ventures.

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