If Trump Loses the Election, X Will Also Lose out Big Time

I’ve been working on my predictions for social media in 2025, but there’s one particularly timely prognostication among them that can’t wait. Though it’s probably not a radical forecast for those who’ve been paying attention.  

The future of the platform formerly known as Twitter is very much dependent on the outcome of this week’s U.S. Presidential Election. If Trump wins, X, and owner Elon Musk, will also win big, but if Trump loses, the reverse is also true. And given X’s broader struggles, I’m not sure it the platform will even survive another year if that’s the case.

Here’s why:

Elon Musk has put his reputation on the line in backing Trump, and is doing all that he can to get Trump re-elected.

So why is Elon so dedicated to Trump all of a sudden?

That’s an interesting question, particularly when as recently as two years ago, Musk said:

Elon’s view, two years ago, was that Trump was too old to be President and caused too much distracting drama in his time in office.

And of course, Trump, in his usual style, responded to Musk’s comments:

Trump further noted that Musk should focus on “getting himself out of the Twitter mess, because he could owe $44 billion for something that’s perhaps worthless.” 

Yet, two years later, they’re brothers in arms, striving towards a goal that Elon was clearly opposed to, by using the platform that Trump said was worthless.

Seems like a big shift, but really, it’s far less to do with aligning ideologies, as both men are now keen to suggest, and far more to do with gaining power, on both sides of the equation.

Musk’s purchase of Twitter comes down to political influence, and being able to shift public opinion on policies and politicians who oppose his various plans.

We’ve seen this in action, with Musk loudly and repeatedly attacking governments and regulators that he has a problem with, while either amplifying support for those who work with him and his companies, or quietly adhering to their requests.

The most obvious example is in Brazil, where X recently opposed a court order to suspend the profiles of users identified by Brazilian officials as distributing misinformation. That defiance led to X being banned in Brazil for a month, before Elon and Co. eventually decided to action the Brazilian government’s requests, in order to be reinstated in the nation.

The Brazilian demands relate to users who’ve continued to claim that the 2022 Brazilian election was “stolen,” which resulted in the ouster of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Various investigations have been conducted into these claims, and no evidence has been found to support such. And as this claim undermines the current government, Brazilian officials decided to quash them where they can, by demanding that X, among others, de-platform these users.

Musk refused to action the request, then went on various rants about corruption within the Brazilian government, and the Brazilian legal system, while calling on Brazilians to vote out their government at next opportunity.

Yet, other governments have asked X to do the exact same thing, in removing certain accounts due to what they’ve deemed violations of local laws. And X has done so, sometimes with a note about how it’s opposed to such. But it’s actioned such requests anyway.

So why was Elon so riled up about Brazil, but not so much in Turkey, despite the core issue being exactly the same?

Because Musk lost money when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he’s trying to use his power and influence at X to get back at those who’ve stymied his business plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk had formed a business relationship that stood to grant Musk significant benefits for his projects, including favorable deals on lithium for Tesla from Brazil’s mines. Lithium is a key component of electric car batteries, and Musk has been working with several South American region governments to get better deals for the mineral.

Musk, for example, established a lithium supply deal with Bolivia back in 2021, following the ousting of Bolivian President Evo Morales, who had been opposed to allowing American companies to come in and take Bolivia’s resources.

Which, at the time, saw Musk post this tweet:

That’s telling of his views on Twitter, and its capacity for political influence, and it’s worth also noting that following this tweet, Musk started buying up Twitter stock, which eventually led to him purchasing the app.

Another example is Argentina, where Musk has been effusive in his praise of President Javier Milei.

Guess who’s also been working on a lithium supply deal for Tesla? That’s right, Milei met with Musk at Tesla's Austin headquarters earlier this year to discuss potential lithium projects.

Musk’s impetus is evident in all of his dealings at X. X has readily actioned government requests from India, where Tesla’s currently working towards the establishment of new distribution agreements for its vehicles. As per the above, X has also adhered to Turkish government demands, which is considering opportunities for both Tesla and Starlink.

The approach is clear, but the re-election of Trump is Musk’s key project on this front, and his key selling point for X as a political influence machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will be able to access new opportunities for X, either through government projects or business deals relating to that political influence. Which, again, is the real play for Elon here, in promoting X as a means to sway voters, based on his own presence in the app, and his ability to nudge platform approaches to benefit whatever cause he chooses.

A Trump win would be an Elon win in this respect, in endorsing his personal power to shift voting outcomes, which is something that he could sell to opposing parties in many regions.

A Trump loss, however, would effectively kill off many, many opportunities for X.

And X needs to get back on track. The company’s revenue is down somewhere in the vicinity of 70% from what it was before Musk took over, while it’s also losing millions of users.

Advertisers continue to distance themselves from Elon’s more divisive approach to platform management, and there’s little reason for them to come back. And when you couple that with the huge debt burden that Elon has saddled the company with as part of the funding for his takeover, and there’s no way that X is turning a profit, of any kind, any time soon.

In fact, X is on track to post a major loss in 2024.

And if things don’t turn around soon, there’s only so much that Musk and his investors will absorb on this front, despite his personal wealth.

So again, the fate of X is very much linked to the fate of Trump in this election. And if Trump loses, X, and Musk, will be in dire straits.

A Harris victory will put X on the fast track to bankruptcy, and if that happens, I predict that Elon will be looking to get out of the social media business in the second half of 2025.

Musk recently noted in an interview that if Trump loses “I’m f***ed”. And while experts don’t see the broader impacts of such hitting his other projects, like Tesla or SpaceX, even if Harris wins, X will be in a much tougher spot.

So aside from TikTok potentially being saved if Trump is returned to The White House, the other social media angle, stemming direct from the vote, could be the eventual loss of X, and what’s left of Twitter in the app.