Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's ruling LDP set to secure supermajority in Lower House: NHK
PM Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party is likely to win between 274-328 seats in the Lower House, higher than the 233 seats needed for a majority, NHK says.
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Sanae Takaichi, Japan's prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Japan's Liberal Democratic Party was projected to secure a supermajority in the Lower House, according to a projection by national broadcaster NHK.
NHK forecast the Liberal Democratic Party could win between 274 and 328 seats in the 465-seat chamber, while its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, could take 28 to 38 seats.
A two-thirds majority requires 310 seats and would enable the LDP to override any veto on legislation by the Upper House, where it remains in the minority.
NHK data shows the largest opposition bloc, the Centrist Reform Alliance, was likely to lose about half its seats, falling to between 37 and 91 from its previous 172.
The alliance was formed through a merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP's former coalition partner.
The projections broadly matched pre-election polling by Nikkei and Asahi Shimbun, which suggested the LDP-JIP coalition could secure more than 300 seats in the Lower House.
People trudged through heavy snow in several parts of the country to cast their votes.
Before parliament was dissolved, the LDP-JIP coalition held 230 seats, and with three independents voting with the LDP, the ruling coalition effectively had a one-seat majority in the chamber.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader, dissolved the Lower House on Jan. 23, a move that was seen as an attempt to quickly strengthen the ruling coalition's position in the chamber by capitalizing on her high public approval ratings.
"Takaichi now has the LDP and the technocrats exactly where she always wanted them," economist Jesper Koll said in a Substack post.
"The LDP is now beholden to her, and the elite technocrats now know she'll be in power for at least two or three more years … so they have no choice but to invest their career in her success," Koll added.
OSAKA, JAPAN - FEBRUARY 08: Election staff members count votes at a ballot counting center on February 08, 2026 in Osaka, Japan. Voters across the country headed to polls today as Japan's Lower House election was held. (Photo by Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images)
Buddhika Weerasinghe | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Polls compiled by Japanese media outlet Nippon.com showed that Takaichi remained popular heading into the election, although her support had slipped slightly in recent weeks.
The outlet reported that just one domestic poll in January indicated more than 70% support, compared to three in December, while six polls showed support in the 60% range, up from four in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the Central Reform Alliance, made up of the former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP's former coalition partner, was likely to pick up between 37 and 91 seats.
The CDP was the largest opposition party before its merger with Komeito, holding 148 seats, while Komeito held 24.
Economic and geopolitical challenges
The election comes amid heightened tensions between Japan and China, as well as persistent concerns about the yen's weakness and inflation in the country.
Japan has endured inflation above the Bank of Japan's target for 45 consecutive months, declining real wages and persistent yen weakness.
The most recent inflation reading stood at 2.1%, while full-year inflation reached 3.2%. Real wages fell for 11 consecutive months year-on-year in 2025, and on an annual basis, they have fallen every year since 2022.
The yen weakened further at the start of 2026, briefly approaching the 160 level against the U.S. dollar. While a weaker currency benefits exporters, it has also amplified imported inflation.
Takaichi had earlier laid out a record $783 billion budget for the next fiscal year starting April 1, on top of a $135 billion stimulus package introduced last year to help households with rising living costs.
"Watch for more state-directed initiatives to create 'national champions', leveraging the $550 [billion] U.S.-Japan investment deal to create a sense of urgency amongst reluctant CEOs," Koll said. "Japan's M&A boom will get turbo-charged to create greater economies of scale, and thus more credible global competitiveness — all this in the name of higher national economic security."
— Azhar Sukri contributed to this story
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