Middle East leaders huddle in Pakistan as Trump weighs ground operations in Iran

Middle East leaders are meeting in Pakistan on Sunday to discuss the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly weighs deploying ground troops into the conflict that is now stretching into its second month.

The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt all arrived in Islamabad as Iran continues to target the U.S.'s allies in the Middle East. The representatives will discuss the "evolving regional situation and advancing peace and stability, while strengthening our partnership and deepening cooperation across diverse domains," according to a post on X from Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

The meeting comes as Pakistan emerges as a potential mediator in talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran, which began last month when the U.S. and Israel launched a strike that killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Trump, meanwhile, is reportedly weighing the deployment of U.S. ground troops into the conflict as Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz largely closed — sending shockwaves through the markets and spiking oil and gasoline prices.

The Washington Post reported Saturday night that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran as thousands of U.S. troops arrive in the region. It's unclear if Trump will green-light the operations, as he claims that the war effort is both winding down while threatening to escalate the conflict.

Lawmakers, who just left Washington for a two-week recess, on Sunday expressed some hesitation about a potential full-scale invasion of Iran with U.S. forces. But top Republicans appeared to give Trump partial approval for some use of U.S. ground troops.

Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that his support for the use of ground troops "depends on what boots we're putting on the ground," arguing that the use of special forces units for specific goals is different than a longstanding occupation and ground war, which he said would require congressional authorization.

"If we had a long-standing war that's happening, go back again to what happened in Iraq or in Afghanistan, yes," Lankford said on congressional approval. "If this is to protect Americans and to be able to make sure that we're in there for a season and we're stopping and getting out, that's very, very different. So again, this is all contingent."

Aluminium Bahrain, which hosts the world's largest smelter of the metal, said on Sunday its facility was subjected to an Iranian attack.

The company, known as Alba, said in a statement that the attack happened on Saturday.

"Alba is assessing the extent of the damage to its facilities and remains focused on maintaining its operational resilience and the safety of its employees," Alba said.

The company had cut production capacity by 19% of its annual output of 1.6 million tons "as an operational measure to preserve business continuity amid ongoing supply and transit disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz," the company said on March 15.

The production cuts have been adding to fears of a global shortage of the metal. Aluminum prices surged to four-year highs earlier this month before paring some of those gains. They remain 4.3% above their Feb. 27 levels.

While aluminum may be the most abundant metal on earth, it is crucial to the functioning of the world economy. It is an essential material across electronics, transport, and construction, as well as other industries such as solar panels and packaging. 

LME Aluminum

Iran has been retaliating against U.S. and Israeli attacks that began on Feb. 28 by firing missiles and drones at its regional neighbors.

The United Arab Emirates said on Sunday its air defenses were dealing with the latest salvo of incoming missiles.

On Saturday, Iranian-backed Houthi fighters said they launched a missile strike against Israel, the first time the group has participated in the war.

Analysts have told CNBC that the Houthis could attempt to choke off maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, separating the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa — through which ships must pass to reach the Red Sea and the Suez Canal — adding to pressure on global trade.

On Saturday, Danish shipping giant Maersk, widely regarded as a barometer of global trade, responded to reports of drone activity and explosions that occurred at the Port of Salalah in Oman.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait was estimated to account for 12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas trade in the first half of 2023.

Iranian forces have already effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies moved before the war.

Oil prices on Friday closed at their highest level in more than three years, as President Donald Trump's pivot toward negotiations with Iran failed to ease market fears about the huge supply disruption in the Middle East.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 5.46% to close at $99.64 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude prices gained 4.22% to settle at $112.57. 

Trump's move to give Iran a 10-day extension to open the strategically vital Strait failed to soothe supply concerns. The president said in a social media post on Thursday that talks with Iran were "going very well" despite "erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others." Iran says it has not engaged in any negotiations.

As part of the announcement, the U.S. president said he would pause attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure through April 6.

Meanwhile, a growing U.S. troop presence in the Gulf has raised fears of a ground invasion, possibly prolonging the war and uncertainty for the global economy.

The U.S. Central Command confirmed the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, made up of roughly 3,500 Sailors and Marines, arrived in the Middle East on Saturday.

"U.S. Sailors and Marines aboard USS Tripoli (LHA 7) arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, March 27," according to a statement posted on X.

On Sunday, Iran threatened to target U.S. and Israeli educational institutions in the region unless the U.S. condemns attacks on Iranian universities, according to Iranian media, which quoted its armed forces. It posted images of damage to the University of Science and Technology in Tehran, which it blamed on U.S. attacks.