Political ad spending projected to top $11 billion in 2024

Anyone who consumes media understands that the 2024 political cycle is very much underway. To date, Vivvix/CMAG has tracked over $200 million in spending on issues and races across the country. The presidential contest has already committed nearly $70 million focused on cable news networks and early primary states. The Republican primary players have committed about $60 million of that total through July 10.

The surprise of the year was Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court race, which accounted for almost $30 million. The larger question for this race is whether it’s a harbinger of things to come in state Supreme Court contests. We at Vivvix/CMAG believe that is likely the case. The extra attention paid to this contest was clearly because the winner determined ideological control of that body. (A Democrat-backed candidate won a seat on that court in April, giving liberals a 4-3 majority.)

It’s become cliché to state to say there will be more spending in 2024 vs. 2020. That’s been the norm since Citizens United and has prompted an ongoing increase in fundraising and ad spending. This cycle will not be the end of that growth. We are projecting fundraising to hit $19 billion this cycle with the potential for more. At our more conservative number, that’s about $11.5 billion in ad spending across all forms of ads. Here’s how we see some of those dollars being spent: 

The news is the growth with streaming. The CTV platform aids buyers with reach numbers that keep showing steady declines in linear TV. It also does a good job of reaching younger voters. There is enough inventory in CTV to accommodate the type of increase we’re projecting for 2024. CTV will find a welcome home in the presidential race. CTV was utilized in the 2020 cycle but the newness of the platform and the lack of inventory kept spending in check. With those issues removed, let’s see how aggressively the platform is used at the top of the ballot both locally and nationally. 

Where do you spend over $11 billion? There is obviously the presidential race and we see the number of swing states evolving around the following: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Where are Ohio and Florida? Both longtime swing states now appear to be rather comfortably red given recent election results. We should probably give Michigan some leeway as well given the Democrats’ clear majorities coming out of 2022. 

The margins on Capitol Hill are tight again so we expect robust spending to be the result. The margin for House Republicans has come down to less than a handful of seats and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) can feel the pain of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as both deal with difficult governing majorities in the 118th Congress.

Control of the U.S. Senate will come down to West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. Democrats are defending more seats in this cycle than in 2022 and Republicans are already looking good to pick up the seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Beyond that state, the Republicans' opportunities for U.S. Senate control come down to beating two resilient Democrats in Sens. Brown and Tester from Ohio and Montana respectively. Arizona will be a three-way contest between the newly independent Sen. Sinema and the major party candidates.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin looks to be in good shape to hold the Michigan U.S. Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Republicans are still looking for a candidate in Wisconsin to square off against Sen. Tammy Baldwin and have just recently found their preferred Montana and Nevada choices. 

Part of the good news for Republicans is that they don’t seem to be in any mortal danger of losing any of the seats they’re defending. Democrats are looking to give Sen. Ted Cruz another tough race in Texas after Beto O’Rourke came too close for Cruz’s liking in 2018. 

Keep an eye on the California race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Feinstein’s health has been in the headlines as it’s been steadily declining and the contest to replace her has three veteran Democratic U.S. House members from the Golden State vying for it: Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter. Does this so split the Democratic primary vote in March 2024 that it’s possible a Republican makes it onto the November ballot?

In the House, the margins are equally thin and that makes it quite likely that the competition in the swing seats will be intense. The good news for media owners is that a number of these seats reside in the two largest markets in the USA: New York and Los Angeles. There’s already been activity against Republican freshman lawmakers in both locales as the Democrats begin to position themselves to take these seats back and restore their House majority that was lost in November 2022.

In the 2022 cycle, we had three House races spend more than $30 million. Those three were Michigan's 7th Congressional District (Slotkin), Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (Jared Golden) and Virginia's 7th Congressional District (Abigail Spanberger). There were 11 races between $20 million and $30 million. The total spend was close as our Vivvix/CMAG Competitive Navigator showed the Democrats with a narrow $50 million spend margin. The prognosticators have so far shown an aggregate figure of 40-45 seats considered as “toss-ups.” Twenty-four of those seats are occupied by freshmen.

The Democrats strong message discipline in the 2022 cycle focused on reproductive rights coming from the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court. It was a message that served to limit midterm losses for the Democrats. Will we see much the same messaging in 2024? Early indications would seem to indicate that. 

For gubernatorial races, this cycle doesn’t have the volume of races of the midterms but there are a few to watch. 2023 contests in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana have two races where Republicans are looking to recapture the governor’s mansion. Gov. John Bel Edwards in Louisiana is term-limited and this is a likely Republican flip. In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear is a popular and stubborn opponent and is a slight favorite to hold that state for the Democrats. North Carolina is next year’s choice match as Gov. Cooper (D) exits after his two terms in Raleigh. 

Vivvix/CMAG also believes that state legislative and state Supreme Court races will be receiving more attention and money. The Dobbs decision is the motivation as each state now decides how it wishes to handle the delicate and passionate matter of reproductive rights.

It’s still early and there are matters to be resolved but the early indications are leaning towards another loud, noisy and expensive political season. Vivvix/CMAG will continue to offer our perspective and observations from our rather unique position in the political world as we head toward the 2024 election.