Singapore Q4 job forecast: Several industries are hiring but one expects significant layoffs

ManpowerGroup (MPG) has released its quarterly employment report following its regular survey of 40,000 employers in 42 countries, including Singapore.

Global findings aren’t our interest here and, thankfully, the city-state gets its own publication, which means we can take a deeper look into job market forecasts for the final quarter of 2024.

The survey divides industries into nine broad groups:

General employment sentiments in Singapore

MPG’s basic metric is the Net Employment Outlook, which is calculated by subtracting the number of employers expecting a decrease in hiring from those who predict an increase.

The figure for Singapore this quarter is 29 per cent, as nearly half of the polled companies across the economy anticipate increased hiring by the end of 2024, while only 17 per cent are bracing for cuts.

Image Credit: ManpowerGroup

This figure is higher than the last quarter, but lower than the same period last year. However, comparing figures with 2022 and 2023 may not be very relevant, as those two years saw a rebound in hiring following the COVID-19 isolation, so employer sentiments may have naturally been elevated.

As we’re settling into post-pandemic normalcy, it’s expected that more companies are reaching full employment and will not be looking for talent quite so actively as before.

However, while the broad average looks good, there is considerably more variation depending on the company size.

Very nearly no small businesses (under 50 people) are planning to hire, compared to about 50 per cent and more for bigger businesses, between 50 and 5,000.

This is good news for those in corporations, which are larger in size, but not so good for those relying on SME employment, which also tends to be represented by local entrepreneurs (as opposed to larger multinationals).

And while we would need more data, it may mean that those in a better paid line of work are at a considerable advantage over those that are struggling to make ends meet.

Employment outlook by industry

Finally, let’s take a look at the industry level data. The Financial & Real Estate sector has recorded a massive 49 per cent jump over Q3.

However, by comparing the findings with other surveys, this figure is likely driven predominantly by the finance sector and far less by real estate, which—when analysed separately—tended to rank last.

Perhaps ManpowerGroup can reconsider the grouping and unscramble both industries as they do not necessarily align with each other.

Another bit of good news is the fact that nearly all sectors are looking to increase their headcounts.

In previous releases, scoring 30 per cent or more was a great result, but now nearly all (except two) are either above or near this level.

There is one outlier however, and that is the Energy and Utilities sector, with a depressing -30 per cent. This means that, on the whole, 30 per cent more companies in the industry are looking to cut staffing in Q4 than those willing to hire.

It’s a precipitous drop from +20 per cent last quarter and +28 last year, and was recorded despite the fact that 69 per cent of employers are still complaining about talent shortages.

In practical terms, it may mean that as many as 40 to 50 per cent of businesses in this sector might be laying people off, assuming 10 or 20 per cent are willing to employ (MPG does not provide a specific breakdown).

If you’re in Energy & Utilities, keep your ear to the ground for the next three months, just to be safe. Fortunately, everybody else shouldn’t have to worry about a spoilt New Year’s Eve.

Featured image: Rawpixel/depositphotos