What People Are Getting Wrong This Week: The 'Missing Scientists' Conspiracy Theory

The internet is full is misinformation, conspiracies, and lies. Each week, we tackle the misunderstandings that are going viral.

This story seems straight out of a Hollywood thriller: Up to a dozen scientists working on some of the U.S.’s most advanced and sensitive aerospace and nuclear programs have disappeared or died in mysterious ways over the last five years. The FBI is working with the Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, and local law enforcement to find answers. The House Oversight Committee launched its own investigation. Congressman Eric Burlison said the mystery has “all the hallmarks of a foreign operation.” The president called it “pretty serious stuff."

Congressman James Comer suggested someone is targeting the nation’s nuclear program. Rep. Tim Burchett alleged a cover-up of UAP activity. Some say it’s aimed at people with knowledge of American security secrets.  Or maybe it’s to cover up evidence of time travel.  So what’s really going on here?

Literally nothing. This is a cobbled-together collection of unrelated deaths and disappearances. As a conspiracy theory, it is, as Daniel Engber pointed out in The Atlantic, "unbelievably dumb."

Scientists are dying, but so is everyone else

There are around two million scientists in the U.S., and, as science writer and debunker Mick West pointed out, over 700,000 people hold top-secret clearances in the U.S. aerospace and nuclear sectors. If 10 or so of this group had died or disappeared in inexplicable ways over five years, it wouldn’t be statistically meaningful, but this theory is even more stupid than that. Many people on the list didn’t seem to have top-secret clearances, and many weren’t scientists. The list includes a construction foreman who once worked at Los Alamos National Lab, a former custodian at the Kansas City National Security Campus, and an administrative assistant. And there are concrete explanations for almost all of these deaths and disappearances. The list includes physicist Ning Li who died at 78 of Alzheimers and Carl Grillmair who was killed in a home invasion by a man with a violent history who had a prior disagreement with Grillmair that had nothing to do with science. 

The missing scientist conspiracy theories have all the hallmarks of apophenia (people perceiving meaningful connections in random data) and cherry-picking, and even if we give a lot of credit to the most “mysterious” entries on the list, the theory gets muddy very quickly. 

The strange life and death of Amy Eskridge

The death that arguably supports the “mysterious assassinations” theory most strongly is that of Amy Eskridge. A fringe scientist who founded the Institute for Exotic Science in Huntsville, Alabama to study anti-gravity technology, Eskridge died at 34 of a (supposedly) self-inflicted gunshot wound in 2022, after telling friends she was being stalked and targeted by unknown forces. 

The conspiracy theorists’ line about Eskridge is that she was a brilliant scientist who made a breakthrough discovery in anti-gravity research and was taken out by mysterious pro-gravity forces before she could go public. It’s a compelling narrative on the surface, but when you unwind it, you find the kind of half-truths and exaggerations you always find when you look into conspiracy theories. 

What actually is a scientist? 

Whether Eskridge belongs in a list of scientists in the first place is debatable. Some online have categorized her as an important researcher with a background in physics, but her highest degree was a bachelors in biochemistry, and she doesn't seem to have published any research in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Eskridge didn’t have the kind of professional background that suggests access to top-secret government programs, either. 

Maybe Eskridge’s gravity research was too esoteric to be accepted by the "mainstream science," but even that is questionable. Judging from this public presentation (and accompanying slides) that Eskridge gave not long before she died, she didn’t seem close to any kind of breakthrough. Her speech points out that you can’t build an anti-gravity machine without first developing a theoretical framework for how one could actually work, and that that theory doesn’t exist right now. This is exactly what the scientific establishment would say. 

Eskridge’s presentation wasn’t a revelation of ground-breaking new technology. It was a catalog of past attempts to conquer gravity. ending with a stab at finding a patron to fund basic, step-one theoretical research. Despite the posts from conspiracy theorists, there’s no indication that Eskridge, or anyone else, got beyond the whole “based on everything we know about how the physical world works, anti-gravity isn’t possible” thing. 

Eskridge's death is (somewhat) mysterious

Eskridge’s death does raise questions. According to police and the medical examiner, it was a suicide, but according to conspiracy theorists it was a murder, and they have receipts.

On May 13, 2022, one month before she died, Eskridge reportedly sent a message to business partner Samuel Reed that read: "If you see any report that I killed myself, I most definitely did not. If you see any report that I overdosed, I most definitely did not…If anything happens to me—suicide or an accident—it wasn't, it's suspicious, treat it as such.”

She also reported repeated death threats and other harassment, and posted a video of supposed burns on her hands to prove a directed energy weapon was being used against her. 

On the other hand, members of Eskridge’s family publicly stated that she had suffered from chronic pain, and reported no suspicion about how she died. Eskridge didn’t post recordings of harassing phone calls or dark messages she received, nor did she provide any other evidence that she was being targeted. 

That isn't proof she wasn’t murdered, though. The case of Eskridge and the rest of these scientists runs across a common problem of debunking conspiracy theories: We don’t know enough to say for sure, and we can’t prove a negative. That leaves us with asking which explanation is more probable: a shadowy, unnamed cabal of assassins targeting a woman who was interested in anti-gravity, or a woman who was paranoid about a non-existent cabal and took her own life.

From what we know for sure, Eskridge was interested in developing an anti-gravity hypothesis. Some claim she was about to break the field wide open by publishing her findings, but she didn’t actually publish anything. Even if we accept that her theory existed, the argument is still “assassins targeted someone for thinking about anti-gravity,” which is still an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. And there isn’t any. 

Eskridge's death, heartbreaking as it is, would not have attracted attention if she hadn't spent her final months making predictions that later appeared, to some, to come true, but that’s not enough to prove anything. We only have Eskridge’s word that harassment took place, and it all could have been the product of paranoid delusions on her part. 

While plenty of intelligent, mentally healthy people hold unconventional views about physics and government secrecy, Eskridge believed that she, specifically, was being hunted for her research. Psychiatrists call this "persecutory ideation," and it's associated with serious mental illnesses and correlates to suicide.

We don’t have evidence to prove Eskridge was suffering from a mental illness, just as we can’t prove that she was murdered, but mental illness is, in general, a more common cause of death than shadowy cabals of assassins targeting people over scientific theories. Roughly 800 to 900 Americans aged 34 die by suicide every year. As Eskridge’s father, a retired NASA employee, told NewsNation, “Scientists die also, just like other people.”

The families just want theorists to stop

Eskridge’s father isn’t the only family member of someone on the list to have spoken out. Carl Grillmair's widow Louise told BBC that she has been fielding calls from conspiracy theorists, despite the fact that her husband’s alleged killer has been charged with murder. Relatives of others on the list have publicly called the conspiracy theories "terrible" and “disgusting.” And not a single family member has publicly suggested there's anything suspicious about any of these deaths or disappearances.

It’s fun (and sometimes politically useful) for conspiracy theorists to dream up connections between unrelated events, just like it is fun for people like me to shoot holes in their theories, but these were real people with families, friends, and in many cases genuine scientific legacies. They deserve better than a walk-on role in a conspiracy theory.