Why the UK tourism industry is still suffering four years after Covid

UKtourism is still struggling to recover four years after the global Covid-19 pandemic, with the country facing a £2.8 billion shortfall in tourist spending and the number of overseas visitors still not back to pre-pandemic levels.

More than four years since the UK was plunged into an unexpected lockdown during the global pandemic and travel was severely restricted, the country has been unable to restore its all-important tourist industry.

There were around 38 million overseas tourists visiting the UK last year, and while this figure has considerably increased for two consecutive years, it remains 7.1 per cent short of 2019’s tourist figure of 40.9m visitors, ONS data analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) shows.

While this number is predicted by VisitBritain to continue increasing in 2024, with tourist numbers expected to reach 38.7 million, this year will still not show a complete recovery from the pandemic, as there will still be a five per cent shortfall in visitor numbers.

Spending has actually increased year-on-year, with numbers surpassing the last pre-pandemic value of £28.4bn in 2019. The ONS suggests that overseas visitors to the UK spent £31.1bn in 2023, while VisitBritain predicts that the spending will increase to £32.5bn this year.

However, CEBR pointed out that these numbers are presented in nominal terms, meaning they are “significantly supported by the high rates of inflation that have prevailed in recent years”.

As a result, looking at the real value of tourist expenditure, spending has not actually performed better.

CEBR predicts that in real terms, VisitBritain’s spending forecast for 2024 is eight per cent lower than the figure for 2019, meaning there is a £2.8bn hole in tourist spending.

In fact, the numbers also suggest that the UK is falling behind its “closest competitors” as a tourist destination, especially when comparing visitor numbers to other European countries, which, on the whole, are expected to return to growth levels relative to pre-pandemic across the continent this year.

Factors such as the UK’s consumer prices, which have increased to a higher level since 2019 than the rest of the Eurozone and the US, could have an impact.

Compared to 2019, prices for accommodation services are 35.8 per cent higher in 2024, while the equivalent figures for restaurants and cafes and airfares are 28.7 per cent and 47.6 per cent, respectively, CEBR says.

Focusing on England, VisitEngland also reported that there has been a slow growth in visitors, with numbers remaining below the 2019 level.

While popular attractions, like the British Museum and the Tower of London, received an 11 per cent increase in total visits from 2022 to 2023, the number is still 28 per cent below 2019 levels.

Patricia Yates, CEO of VisitBritain, says that while she acknowledges tourism is a competitive global industry, she hopes that pushing Britain’s areas of outstanding natural beauty will encourage more tourists to visit.

“Tourism is a competitive global industry, and visitors have a lot of choices” she said. “Britain always ranks highly for its history and heritage and contemporary culture and sport, but perceptions are not as strong for its natural beauty and perceived welcome.

“The latter is a top driver in destination choice. To counter this, VisitBritain’s international GREAT campaigns showcase our welcome, inspiring visitors to discover more of Britain, stay longer and to drive that sense of urgency to come now.

“Tourism is this country’s third largest service export and a major part of British trade,” she added. “Tourism tells the story globally of modern Britain today, positioning it as a welcoming, vibrant, culturally diverse country that people want to visit, send their kids to school and invest in.

“We know that those who have come here on holiday are 18% more likely to go on to invest in British businesses. Like every export industry, we need to be telling our story about why people should come to Britain not one day, but today.”

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