S’pore wages to rise by ca. 11% in the next 12 months. Here are your odds of getting a raise.

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A few days ago, the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) published a very detailed survey of the domestic business environment. The survey was conducted in July, and here are some key findings out of the impressive 112 page document about your prospects for the next 12 months.

Full-time employment going up

The first piece of good news is that more companies are planning to hire more full-time employees in the next year than they did in 2023, with the percentage rising to 40 per cent from just 29 last August.

Similarly, only 12 per cent of the polled companies anticipate layoffs, as opposed to 16 per cent last year.

Smaller companies are a bit more eager to hire, though the intent to increase headcounts has risen across both SMEs and large enterprises:

Among the industries most starved of talent, Education leads Construction and Civil Engineering, followed by Administration, then Health and Accommodation, which we saw in similar surveys already as Singapore is still opening up to foreign visitors in the post-pandemic years.

Manpower costs won’t affect the intent to raise wages

Demand for talent is good news for the still unemployed and those hoping to switch jobs in the coming year, but what about money?

Rising costs are affecting businesses as much as they do individual consumers, after all.

However, despite the fact that 76 per cent of companies cite manpower costs as a major issue, most companies are also constrained by the dearth of suitable candidates and understand the need to pay both current and potential hires well enough.

This is why 64 per cent of the respondents are planning for wage adjustments of an average of 11 per cent in the next 12 months, which is higher than the anticipated 6 per cent reported last year. Crucially, almost no companies think it’s going to be necessary to cut wages.

Of course these are only averages and your situation may vary, but it’s good to have some point of reference to gauge if what happens to you is in line with what you could expect.

And while we do not have a breakdown of anticipated wage hikes per industry, we do have a list of industries by the percentage of companies which are planning to increase salaries.

But let’s start with size first:

More large companies are planning to adjust employee salaries upwards, albeit by a slightly smaller average of 9 per cent. Conversely, SMEs see wages going up by a higher amount—12 per cent in this case—but nearly 40 per cent want to keep them at the same level as they are today.

And depending on the nature of their business, your likelihood of getting a raise could be a near certainty to less than a coin toss:

Those envious of people in finance have more reasons to be jealous, as the vast majority of Banking and Insurance employees can expect a pay boost. But so do people in Logistics and Education, as well as Real Estate (despite a freeze on hiring) and Retail Trade.

Real wage growth should finally bounce back

The best news—for those who do end up having their pay adjusted upwards, of course—is that the coming raise may finally be felt in their pockets, unlike in the previous two years where inflation ate up the most of it.

With inflation down to 2.5 per cent and heading into a normal sub-2 per cent territory, your next wage hike should actually leave some money in your bank account and be an actual monetary reward, not just an adjustment forced by uncontrolled price growth.

Together with the strong Singapore dollar (currently at its best in a decade), this should make shopping relatively cheaper and international travel even more attractive. So, a deserved holiday may be in order for 2025.

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