Rise in memory chip costs puts pressure on retailers of laptops and smartphones

As the global artificial intelligence race accelerates, memory chips are getting more expensive. As a result, costs of some consumer electronics are beginning to rise for retailers and consumers alike.

Memory storage, known as RAM, is crucial for all computing devices, including phones, tablets and laptops. The cost of chips has been rising due to a supply shortage driven largely by massive demand for AI data centers. Companies such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Google have been scrambling to secure RAM for their chips.

Apple on Thursday announced it's raising its prices on MacBooks and iPads — passing along the rising cost of memory to consumers — with the potential for more price hikes down the road. The memory shortage is an "unprecedented challenge," the company said in a statement.

Incoming Best Buy CEO Jason Bonfig said on a call with reporters earlier this month that the company expects its computing division will be the most affected by price hikes.

"We did see some staggered price increases in Q1, so moving to Q2, we do expect [average sale prices] to increase and units from an elasticity perspective to be impacted," Bonfig said. "We did bring in more inventory in Q1, which you can see on our balance sheet, which does help us to mitigate it."

Soaring memory costs are expected to reduce global personal computer shipments by 10.4% and smartphone shipments by 8.4% in 2026, according to Ranjit Atwal, a senior director analyst at Gartner, citing February research. Gartner also projected that PC prices will increase by 17% and smartphone prices will grow by 13%, compared with 2025 levels.

"What's happening this time around, compared to previous times that memory prices have gone up, is the extent with which prices of memory is increasing," Atwal said. "Secondly is the length of time that we think prices will remain high. ... This one is looking like it won't be until the end of 2027 before we get to any type of regional pricing."

While the price increases may not be immediately apparent in stores, Atwal said, it's inevitable that the demand will outpace the supply. Some retailers pulled forward inventory in the first quarter in anticipation of the rising prices, he added, but that cushion can only last so long.

"It will catch up with everyone," he said. "You end up in a point where you just have no control over what you can do. You have to pass it on, and that's the difference now versus where we were before. The market's more mature as well, so there's an expectation that people are going to buy up anyway."

Consumers might not even be aware of the price hikes, Atwal said. Most people upgrade their laptops after four or five years and may not even remember what they previously paid or what the specifications of their old models were, he said.

That gap may lead to a somewhat "delayed impact" on consumer behavior, Atwal said, but the eventual effect is bound to hit them soon.

So far, Bonfig said, Best Buy isn't seeing any indication that consumers are pulling forward purchases or even that the rising memory costs are affecting their budgets.

"What we do with that customer is talk about what they're replacing, talk about what their needs are and talk about how to get them into technology that is going to be substantially better in so many different ways," Bonfig said. "That's really the focus that we will continue to have, to make sure we have that broadness and assortment."

A Best Buy spokesperson told CNBC that the company still sees its customers spending and that very few of them are worried about memory. In the first quarter, Best Buy said it saw its ninth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales in computing.

Anthony Chukumba, an analyst at Loop Capital who covers Best Buy, told CNBC he thinks larger retailers such as Best Buy will fare better than smaller ones, because of the market share they hold. As suppliers navigate passing along the added costs, Chukumba said major retailers will have more "leverage" to avoid price hikes for as long as they can.

"A lot of times, investors think about things too simplistically, like, 'Oh, rising memory costs because of AI, that must be very bad for Best Buy,'" Chukumba said. "There's just nothing that Best Buy can do about it. ... This is their business, they're always managing these changes, and they're seeing the same stuff that you're seeing, probably before you're seeing it, and in much more detail, and so they manage."

Chukumba said he believes the long-term impacts of memory costs won't be as significant as they may seem at the moment.

"Because technology is constantly evolving, constantly becoming cheaper, you can have this headwind of higher memory prices, but if you're buying something relative to what you would have bought a year ago, much less two years ago, it's still going to have vastly superior capabilities, and the consumers are none the wiser," he said.

It could also hit other retailers, such as Target, Amazon, Costco and Walmart. Target declined to comment on rising memory costs, and Amazon also declined to comment. Costco and Walmart did not respond to requests for comment.

Still, the broader risks posed by the memory chip shortage could spell trouble.

According to Atwal, the Gartner analyst, the rising costs could lead to consumers holding onto their devices longer, leading to fundamental changes to upgrade cycles for products such as smartphones.

"Consumers ... will compromise on what they need, and the vendors are going to find it more difficult to push AI features, which are kind of dependent on this, and typically want a premium for them," Atwal said.

Earlier this month, a coalition of organizations including the National Retail Federation wrote a letter to the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments asking the government to examine the "urgent imbalance" of memory chips and the potential for "significant and sustained near-term price increases" for consumers.

"The real-world impacts of these trends have already begun to show themselves and threaten to deteriorate rapidly if the situation is not remedied," the letter said.

The organizations urged the government to work with memory chipmakers and chip buyers to "protect against harm to consumers, workers, and businesses of all sizes."

Jon Gold, NRF's vice president of supply chain and customs policy, told CNBC the trend could lead to a shortage of consumer electronics, in addition to the potential price hikes.

"There's always only so much impact that retailers can take on their own, so they've got to work with their vendors the best they can to try and minimize price increases and the impact that's having on consumers," Gold said. "But the bigger impact is the lack of those memory chips is a lack of products potentially."

Gold said that if consumers begin to hold on to devices for longer because of price increases and the cost difference for upgrading, it will affect both retailers and suppliers as the consumer electronics market stagnates.

"Unfortunately, it's one more complicated factor for a retailer and others who are making long-term plans and who are making contracts six, nine, 12 months in advance," Gold said. "It's very complicated and very complex and more pressure on retailers and manufacturers."